Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass: SG: Approach & SG: Around The Green
Lock of the week:
Jordan Spieth $11,100 – The “Golden Boy” having 3 consecutive missed cuts here at TPC Sawgrass is about as dumbfounding as pre-calculus to us our junior year of high school. Jordan is built for this track. His iron game is as sharp as ever. The putter is coming around. He wants to win this event. He mentioned in his press conference today how highly he regarded this title as The Players Champion. He’s 5th in this field in SG: App in the last 12 rounds and has gained a total of 26 strokes in the last six weeks on the PGA Tour. We’re all in on Jordan.
Patrick Reed $8,700 – Here’s another guy built for this Pete Dye design. Patrick is pounding fairways, pounding greens and putting like his life depends on it right now. The Masters champ smells blood in the water and wants nothing more than to assume his position as one of the best golfers in the world. He’s top 25 in this field in SG: App, SG: ATG and 3 putt avoidance over the last 12 rounds. Plus, we think people continue to under own Patrick in GPPs on DraftKings because they either don’t like him or they don’t buy the hype. We buy it. Full send on the Masters champ.
Zach Johnson $7,500 – Speaking of a fairway pelting, ball striking, former Masters champ…enter Zach Johnson. Like Reed, ZJ is top 25 in this field in SG: App, SG: ATG and 3 putt avoidance over the last 12 rounds. He’s better than Reed, however, in his performance at Sawgrass over the last five years by gaining 19 strokes total in that span. Being in the fairway and having the right angle of attack into these pins is critical to success. There are few guys better on tour than Zach Johnson over time in doing just that. We love ZJ in GPP and cash contests.
Webb Simpson $7,300 – Webb may be a fairly popular play this week given recent form and price, but we’re still playing him. He’s 7th in this field in SG: App over the last 12 rounds and top 25 in SG: ATG. His record at Sawgrass isn’t terrible. It’s not earth-shattering, but not terrible. One secret weapon Webb carries this week is the guy carrying his clubs around all week in Paul Tesori. Paul is a friend of the Tour Junkies and has over 18 years of caddy experience on the PGA Tour. He’s a resident of Ponte Vedra and knows how to lead his horse to water around this track.
Best bargain basement option:
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Rory Sabbatini $6,700 – The disclaimer here is two-fold…first, we are going to have exposure to very few guys below $7K this week. Second, Rory has a god awful tribal wrist tattoo that’s nearly disturbing enough to fade him all together for life. However, when we dip into the scrub pond that is the $6K range on DraftKings, we’ll go with a little Sabbs. His current form and history at Sawgrass is pretty good considering his price. Plus, his Vegas odds to win should have him priced about $4-500 higher. GPP play only here for Captain Wrist Tattoo.
Player to Avoid:
Dustin Johnson $10,300 – We always like to make the fade calls bold. What point is there in saying not to play a guy like Ted Potter? There’s not a point. So, here comes Dustin Johnson as our fade of the week. DJ has gained about as many strokes at Sawgrass in the last five years as Simpson and Sabbatini. This track takes the driver out of his hand some, and we’re just not willing to plant our flag on DJ outplaying everyone with his irons and putter game. This field is stacked. That means you’ve got to plant your flag on certain players, fade some big names and deal with the results. We just aren’t interested in planting that flag on DJ.