The top 70 golfers in the FedExCup Playoffs are moving on this week to the picturesque setting of Aronimink Golf Club for the BMW Championship just outside Philadelphia. Aronimink is a remarkable test of golf with firm, fast, and undulating greens, and tall rough that will severely penalize mis-hits off the tee. The course recently was renovated back to its original 1928 Donald Ross parkland design to put an emphasis back on ball-striking. The final 30 spots are up for grabs as the season-ending TOUR Championship looms next week in Atlanta. Here are five things you need to know about the penultimate event of the FedExCup Playoffs.

Aronimink Golf Club Hole 16
Aronimink Golf Club Hole 16

Inside the Field

Tiger Woods hasn’t played in the TOUR Championship since 2013, and if he’s going to move on to East Lake next week he’ll need to snap out of his short-game slump. Phil Mickelson is finding more fairways and looks to build on his exceptional final round at the Dell Technologies Championship. Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth have had underwhelming seasons to this point, but could put themselves in contention to steal the FedExCup at the end with a big week at Aronimink. Brooks Koepka’s game has been in great shape since June, and is a threat to win every time he starts.

Major Storylines

The BMW Championship is the third-longest running event on Tour, and this week marks the first time since 1959 it will be contested in Pennsylvania. Rickie Fowler eyes a return to the playoffs after taking the first two events off to heal an abdominal strain, but he’s in danger of falling outside the top 30 spots that move on to the season-ending TOUR Championship. Bryson DeChambeau has already secured the top spot heading into the final event, while Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, and Justin Thomas hope to hold their top-5 positions this week and head into Atlanta as players who control their own destinies.

Bubble Strategy

With only 30 of the 70 players in the field this week advancing to the season finale in Atlanta, there’s going to be some pedal-to-the-metal, incredibly aggressive golf at Aronimink. Players with their backs against the wall will go for broke and put it all on the line – which means you’re going to see some really good golf this week, and some really bad golf. Others won’t throw caution to the wind completely, but expect to see unusual decisions and shot selections that you don’t see in the regular season. And if a player has the right club and the right number, just about any pin is going to be the right pin trying to squeeze out one final week from the season.

Historic Renovation

Aronimink Golf Club Hole 11
Aronimink Golf Club Hole 11

After years of modifications and natural decline, the par-70, 7,237-yard Aronimink Golf Club was due for a facelift. Using aerial photos from the 1929 Dallin Collection, architect Gil Hanse put the track back in the condition as it was originally pained by Donald Ross in 1928. That means tees have been reshaped to keep with the original free-form, greens have been enlarged to reclaim lost areas and hole locations, and the bunkering aesthetics and locations have returned all of the original 176 bunkers to the Newtown Square landscape. Some of the old sand and original bunker remnants were actually discovered during the restorations. Ross intended Aronimink to be his masterpiece, and Hanse has successfully returned it to its challenging and celebrated glory.

Inside the Course

Long irons will be key at Aronimink both off the tee and on approach. The shortest par-4 is only 383 yards and three of the four par-3s weight in at more than 200 yards. The par-3, 215-yard 17th hole could produce some big scoring swings as it plays downhill into a green with a steep bank short and left. The slightest misses could wind up rolling down into a lake. Wider fairways and larger greens will afford different pin placements and a strategy element that gives players a reason to think about where to place shots to take advantage of the best angles to the hole.

Aronimink Golf Club Hole 17
Aronimink Golf Club Hole 17

Winner Prediction

No one is playing better than Bryson DeChambeau right now. Not World No. 1 Dustin Johnson. Not two-time major champion this season Brooks Koepka. No one. The only reason you wouldn’t pick Bryson to win the BMW is because the odds are against him winning three playoff events in a row. But the odds were against him winning last week for two straight, and few would have believed before the season began that DeChambeau would be ranked higher in the world than Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy at this point of the year. The moral of the story is: bet against Bryson this week at your own peril.