The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The Dell Technologies Championship from TPC Boston and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper and player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats: SG: Off the Tee / Proximity / DraftKings Scoring / Bubble Boy Status w/ FedEx & Ryder Cup / Ownership / Recent Form / Course History
Lock of the week:
Embed from Getty Images Justin Thomas $11,400 - Last year’s Dell Tech champion arrives this year in just as strong a form as last season when he dominated TPC Boston. Thomas is 17th in Proximity, 28th in SG: OTT, and 4th in DK Scoring over the last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour. Those numbers have led to a monstrous 33 strokes gained total over the last 6 weeks on the PGA Tour. We like the “studs and duds” approach this week with top 70 and ties getting through the cut out of this small 99 man field. The ownership up top will likely be diluted in large GPPs on DraftKings since there are so many big names in the field. We’ll take JT in GPPs and cash with ownership likely below 15% across most contests.Value Plays:
Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 - Full disclosure...Pat hates Hideki this week (but for absolutely no good reason). David loves Hideki-Bot with his heart and soul for the Dell Tech! Hideki’s form is heating up just in time for the playoffs with back to back top 15s. He’s 10th in Proximity and 8th in DK Scoring over the last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour. TPC Boston has been good to Matsuyama as well with three straight top 25s the last three attempts. The final factor for Hideki at TPC Boston is the fact that he’s 58th in the FedEx Cup standings right now. He’s technically in for next week, but he’s close enough to the bubble that he’s in danger if he trunk slams on Saturday. Plus, he’s got to make a big jump to be guaranteed a spot at Eastlake. Full send for Hideki (for David at least).
Tony Finau $8,800 - Few players have enjoyed a better season than 18Birdies Ambassador Tony Finau. And lately, he’s gained 33 strokes total over the last six weeks on the PGA Tour, including his 2nd place finish last week. Tony has the Ryder Cup in his crosshairs, and he can’t slow down this week in Boston. He’s 17th in SG: OTT, 27th in Proximity and 3rd in DK Scoring over the last 12 rounds. The tour’s nicest human just needs the putter to get lukewarm. Last week, he gained over four shots tee to green but lost a stroke and a half putting. He’ll be popular in cash and GPP contests, but eat the chalk and play him regardless.
Paul Casey $7,900 - The gut play of the week goes to Paul Casey. He hasn’t been himself since late July it seems as he lost strokes tee to green since the Bridgestone. However, the SG: OTT and SG: APP numbers were back in the positive last week at The Northern Trust, but the wedge play and flatstick let him down.
The price is really eye-catching this week as it’s one of the lowest we’ve seen for Casey all season. Plus, he gets a chance to find some form this week on a track where he’s finished fourth and second in his last two attempts. Here’s a chance to get a world class ball striker (who’s ball striking has been a little off) at his lowest price for an event he clearly enjoys. The final factor for playing Casey is the Ryder Cup points at stake. Casey has been a European staple for years, but he finds himself outside the top rankings both in the European ranking and world points. This means Casey will need to rely on a Captain’s pick to find himself in Paris. He’s got to show up this week. He’s got more to play for than a lot of guys in the field in Boston.
Best bargain basement option:
Embed from Getty Images Joel Dahmen $6,400 - Not only is Joel our most recent Tour Junkies Podcast interviewee (hilarious by the way), but he’s checking loads of boxes statistically over the last 12 rounds. He’s 11th in SG: OTT, 25th in Proximity, and 10th in DK Scoring. He finished 23rd at the Quicken Loans, then 5th, then 2nd, then 15th, then 8th, then a missed cut last week after losing 5 strokes chipping and putting. We know for a fact that he feels great, the ball striking is there, and he knows he’s just got to get the putter going. Given the percentage of players that will get through the cut this week and the super low price tag for Joel, we’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs on DraftKings.Player to Avoid:
Adam Scott $9,400 - Scott’s solid form is undeniable of late, but we know that his putter can disappear at any moment. We feel like this fade is really just a value issue. Why pay up for the volatility inherent with Adam when you can pay for more stability with guys around him? He missed the cut at TPC Boston last year and he doesn’t putt as well on bent surfaces as he does other grass types. On his way to the 5th place finish last week, he gained an eye-popping 8.5 strokes putting! He hasn’t gained that many strokes in a single event with a putter since 2011! Factor in some regression and fade away!
