Key Stats for : SG: Approach / Driving Accuracy / DK Scoring / Bentgrass Putters
Lock of the week:
Russell Henley $10,400 - Henley is on an absolute heater lately gaining nearly 23 strokes total in the last six weeks on the PGA Tour. The Georgia Bulldog alum finished 5th here last year after the renovation and his play clearly shows his affection for this course. The players are going to see bentgrass greens this week, and we find looking at long-term putting performance on that surface does link to success. Henley ranks 7th in SG: Putting in this field over the last 100 rounds on bentgrass greens. Need more stats to justify paying up for Henley...how about 10th in SG: Approach, 8th in Driving Accuracy, and 6th in DraftKings points over the last 12 rounds on tour. Henley is a play we’re paying up for in GPPs despite potentially high ownership. Feels a little like the Molinari situation from last week...
Value Plays:
Brian Harman $9,500 - Enter another Georgia Bulldog that’s riding some hot form of late by gaining 21 strokes total in his last six weeks on tour. Unlike Henley though, his record at the Greenbrier is kind of hot garbage. But, that doesn’t scare us. Harman’s game suits this golf course. It’s likely the reason he keeps coming back. He should be able to tear this place apart this week with his form trending nicely. He’s checking the box in Driving Accuracy, DraftKings points, and he’s 9th in this field in SG: P over the last 100 rounds on bentgrass. We love some Harman in GPPs and cash contests.
Brian Gay $8,100 - Paying $8,100 for Brian Gay (even in a weak field) feels a bit like paying for a prostate exam, but you gotta do it to stay out of trouble. Gay is just playing outside his mind right now! The short knocker’s gained 24 strokes total in his last six weeks on tour with four top 20s in his last five events. He’s similar to Harman in that he’s never played well here for some reason, but the form and course fit right now just seems too perfect to avoid. We’re hoping that the poor history of Harman and Gay throw ownership down in GPPs as that’s typically a big driver in terms of who’s popular. We feel good about this “prostate exam” in GPP or cash.
JT Poston $7,200 - If you can’t tell, we’re feeling a little frisky this week. We’re riding high on a few good weeks in a row...oozing with confidence. Enter JT Poston. The Postman has been a guest on the Tour Junkies Podcast before, and he bragged on his short game. Turns out, he’s got a reason to brag. He doesn't hit it far off the tee, but his short game makes up for that lack in distance. JT’s (not the #2 ranked player in the world JT) had three top 27’s in his last four starts and now arrives at a track that should reward his skill set. We’ll have some shares in tournaments on DraftKings.
Best bargain basement option:
Vaughn Taylor $6,700 - Our fellow Augusta native will be making or breaking our weekend with his performance at the Greenbrier. We like this move a ton given Vaughn’s recent form, stat profile, and value. Taylor is really our only sure play in the $6K range and we’ll be pairing him up quite a bit with the $9K and $10K guys. He checks the box in SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, DraftKings points, and SG: Around the Green over the last 12 rounds on tour. If the putter can get even slightly above room temperature, then Vaughn has top 10 upside. He’s a tournament play only as we’re not going below the mid $7K range for cash lineups.
Player to Avoid:
Tony Finau $11,500 - We love Tony! He’sssssss Grrrreeeeaaaatttt! (was that too stupid…?) I mean, we’ve caught his golf balls with our bare hands in the video seen HERE. And even though Josh Hayes refuses to include us in any of the promotion of this video, that’s not why we’re out on Tony this week. This is a simple case of price versus value. Here’s a stat to chew on: In weak fields on the PGA Tour over the last two years, less than 50% of the time have players priced above $11K on DraftKings finished inside the top 10. Putting Finau on your team just requires you to get too risky in lineup construction and you need him to really carry your team. Golf is variable. Again...golf is variable. We took Tony in our one and done pool and we even put a wager on him, but we’re not interested in the lack of value on DraftKings and other DFS formats.
