The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The Open Championship from Carnoustie and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper, and player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats for Carnoustie: SG: Off The Tee (with lean towards accuracy) / SG: Around The Green / Wind Players / Plodder types that can grind in tough conditions / Mental giants / Pure Ball Strikers / Open Championship Experience / Tee Time Draw
“Carnasty Caveat” - The Open Championship is known to see big swings in scoring depending on the tee time draw for Thursday and Friday. 2016 saw a big advantage to Phil & Stenson’s wave, and Carnoustie’s weather patterns can be nasty. It can change faster than LeBron changes teams. As of publishing this article, we don’t have enough information on the weather and tee time draw to make strong calls. However, you can track us down on Twitter & Instagram (@tour_junkies) Wednesday evening to get our live thoughts on where to lean. Even if the draw doesn’t look to favor one side over the other, if you’re playing a lot of DFS lineups, it would make sense to stack some lineups with only players from each wave in case the weather changes quickly.
Lock of the week:
Embed from Getty Images Rickie Fowler $9,700 - The lovable Rickie Fowler comes in this week as our lock due to tremendous recent form, Open record, and skill set to conquer Carnoustie. He’s made four of five cuts at The Open Championship in the last five years with two T25s. The form is in fine shape and the recent finish last week at The Scottish Open historically points to success at Open venues. Fowler’s game is well suited for links-style golf with his low ball flight and pure ball striking allowing him to grind through windy conditions. The high top rocking Oklahoma State product will likely be popular in tournaments on DraftKings, but we’re willing to play him regardless. He’s a staple for us in tournaments and cash games.
Value Plays:
Brooks Koepka $9,200 - Nobody predicted Brooks to win back to back US Opens. Nobody is going to predict that he wins back to back majors. However, he’s got all the game, all the confidence and it seems major championships are driving Brooks more than ever right now. His Open Championship record is stellar with three made cuts of four attempts, including two T25s. Don’t forget that Brooks arrived to the PGA Tour years ago via the Challenge Tour over in Europe. He’s comfortable in Europe. He’s experienced. He’s confident. Koepka played in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (links event played on Carnoustie) in 2014 and 2015 while finishing 9th and 2nd.
Patrick Reed $8,400 - Speaking of a guy that seems to really get up for majors and Ryder Cup, enter Captain America. Yet again, nobody is talking about Patrick Reed in terms of DFS. We love his value on DraftKings. We hope and pray the Scottish fans give him hell for all his Ryder Cup dominance as Reed will soak that up better than anyone. He’s only made half his cuts at The Open Championship in the last five years, but the cuts he’s made were T25s. He’s a low ball hitter with amazing scrambling ability and creativity. That skill set will prove invaluable around a track like Carnoustie with trouble all around. Reed is locked in loaded in our GPP player pool.
Embed from Getty Images Zach Johnson $7,200 - This price tag for an Open Champion that has made every Open cut in the last five years, including four T25s, is absolutely criminal! ZJ’s gained 23 strokes total in the last six weeks and checks a lot of boxes to succeed in difficult, windy, links conditions. With a ton of ownership gravitating to Tony Finau right around Zach, we think he makes a nice pivot in GPPs given his experience. He also makes a considerable good option in cash lineups given the price break and strong likelihood of making the cut. With 155 players in the field, and T70 and ties making the cut, getting all your players through the cut this week will be as critical as ever.
Best bargain basement option:
Embed from Getty Images Kevin Na $7,000 - God bless Kevin Na and his winning ways a couple weeks ago at The Greenbrier after 11 years on the PGA Tour without a victory! This guy is riding high on confidence right now, and it’s wins like that where we see a guy play loose and to his full potential. He’s made four of four cuts in his most recent attempts at The Open Championship with one T25. He’s a low ball hitter who stays out of trouble for the most part. He’s top 30 in this field over the last 12 rounds in SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green. Nobody is talking about him right now, and his ownership should be rather low in GPPs. We don’t feel great about playing him in cash as there are more consistent guys below him like Henley, Moore and CH3. However, he’s an interesting option in GPPs for sure.
Player to Avoid:
Justin Thomas $10,000 - In two Open Championship appearances, JT’s best finish is T53 in 2016. He’s one of the highest ball flight guys on the PGA Tour (not great for windy conditions). He currently ranks 111th in Fairways Gained and 40th in Bogey Avoidance over the last 12 rounds. The putter has cooled off lately, and we’d rather look to Rickie and Brooks below or Rose and DJ above. With such a strong field in a major, you’re going to hate fading certain players given their talent level, but you can’t play everyone. You’ve got to take a stand on good players. JT is one guy we just won’t have exposure to for The Open. We could also see him losing his cool a little if conditions really turn for the worse or he catches some tough breaks in these pot bunkers or gorse bushes. He’s not known as the most resilient guy on the course mentally. Fade away.
