Key Stats for Quail Hollow: SG: Off the Tee / SG: Approach / SG: Around the Green / Proximity 175-200 yards
Lock of the week:
Justin Thomas $11,300 - In a week where the field is deep and value can be found, it makes sense to jump up and take a shot on some studs when it comes to DraftKings. Quail Hollow played as the most difficult course on the PGA Tour in 2017 for the PGA Championship. There were twice as many double bogeys at Quail than at Augusta National in 2017 and Augusta was the 2nd most difficult. When facing a difficult track, the best players in the world tend to rise up the leaderboard. Enter Justin Thomas. As the defending PGA Champ here at Quail, JT is a favorite to win this week. He also had a T7 at this course for the 2015 Wells Fargo. The high ball flight bomber checks all the boxes to continue to dominate Quail Hollow. Full send.
Value Plays:
Patrick Reed $9,700 - We are fully ignoring any narrative out there that says you should avoid a guy coming off a Masters victory. Reed is the type of guy that will just get more and more hungry to prove he’s one of the world’s best. He checks every stat box needed to play well here. Mainly, he’s 12th in this field in the last 12 rounds in SG: Approach and top 25 in the field in SG: ATG and Proximity from 175-200 yards. He rose to the top of the leaderboard in last year’s PGA Championship to finish 2nd. A difficult track in a stacked field is where Reed thrives. We’re rolling with him in GPPs and cash games on DraftKings.
Byeong-Hun An $7,600 - An is one of our favorite sneaky low owned GPP plays in DFS this week as he’ll likely be less than 12% owned in most tournaments, but he’s got winning upside. He finished 28th here at the PGA Championship and his recent play has him gaining 16 strokes total in the last six weeks. He’s in the top of this field in SG: OTT and Proximity from 175-200 yards in the last 12 rounds. Benny An is a pure ball striker that has competed at a high level in majors and other difficult tracks. We’re not likely to roster him in cash games, but consider him in your tournament lineups.
Adam Hadwin $7,400 - The Canadian is best known for his work with the flatstick, but lately his ball striking and long iron play has been stellar. He’s 2nd in this field over the last 12 rounds in SG: Approach and top 25 in the field in SG: ATG and Proximity from 175-200 yards. He missed the cut here last season for the PGA, but he’s playing better right now and we’re willing to overlook that week. Confident and coming off a T24 at The Masters, we think Hadwin is an extremely solid cut maker at a tremendous value.
Best bargain basement option:
Embed from Getty Images Grayson Murray $6,900 - In the words of Petey Pablo…”North Carolina go on and raise up!” The North Carolina native and resident is easily our favorite value on the board. Murray is an absolute bomber that should have no trouble getting around this 7600-yard track. He finished 22nd at the PGA Championship last year at Quail. His form is stellar. He’s gained 18 strokes total in the last six weeks. Based on his current Vegas odds to win, he should be priced with the guys in the mid $7K range making him a steal. He’ll likely be a little higher owned as a result, but we don’t care. Full send on Grayson.
Player to Avoid:
Alex Noren $8,100 - Noren is a great player, but the Official World Golf Rankings are a bit slanted toward international players and may be leading to Noren’s hype. At $8,100 on DraftKings, he’s likely to be a player people will gravitate to in tournaments based on name value alone. He missed the cut at The Masters and finished 67th here for the PGA Championship. He has a skill set suited for Quail Hollow, but given form, lack of experience at Quail, and the poor performance last year, we’ll avoid in hopes that continues.
