Preview: The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The OHL Classic at Mayakoba El Cameleon and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper, and player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats: Ownership / DraftKings Scoring / Opportunities Gained / Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Lock of the Week:
Tony Finau $11,000 - We’re not going to overthink the “Lock of the week” at the OHL Classic. There aren’t many people in the world playing better golf than Tony Finau at the moment. He’s gained 22 strokes in his last six events, and he was only around 15% owned on average in GPPs last week for the Shriners. That ownership level may be the lowest we’ve seen in over a year on Tony. Even if it creeps up a bit this week, we don’t mind. We’ll have him in probably 30% of our lineups on DraftKings. He checks every stat box, and the next win is coming. We’d hate to be off of him when that happens. He’s a lock for a T10 with better odds to win than everyone but Fowler and Jordan. Full send.
Value Plays:Aaron Wise $9,900 - El Cameleon in Playa del Carmen is by no means a “bomber’s track”, playing as a par 71 just under 7,000 yards. However, Wise has proven that he can do plenty of damage with less than a driver in hand. He ranks 16th in this field in one of our new favorite stats, Opportunities Gained. It measures how many chances a player has from 15’ or less on the green or fringe. In other words, you get to see the guys who are getting it close with their approach shots to set up for loads of birdies. Wise is doing just that. He’s an elite DraftKings scoring play, and he’ll likely go overlooked given the talent around him this week. He’s a sneaky GPP play.
Zach Johnson $9,300 - ZJ finished T23 last year at the OHL, and he arrives this year well rested and undervalued on a track that rewards accuracy and wedge play. Zach is top 20 in this field in Opportunities Gained and SG: Around the Green. The Paspalum grass surfaces on this track make for extremely difficult chipping around the greens. There haven’t been many more players consistent over the long term than ZJ with a wedge in hand. We love him in cash or GPP contests on DraftKings.
Anders Albertson $7,200 - The recent Web.com graduate finished 8th on the money list last season on the way to earning his PGA Tour card. Despite his small stature, he hits the ball a long way and gains plenty of shots tee to green. He’s finished T28 & T5 his last two events, and he’s 1st in Opps Gained & DK Points scored for the last 12 rounds. At $7,200, that’s incredible value for a guy who can score in bunches. Eight of the top ten players in DraftKings points scored at last year’s OHL Classic were priced in the $7K and $8K range. He’s a lock for us in cash and GPP contests.
Best bargain basement option:Embed from Getty Images Brian Gay $6,900 - The wiley, short knocking veteran had an incredible 2017-2018 season while seemingly racking up top 25s like it was nothing. He’s fizzled a little at the start of this season, but this is a perfect spot for him to find some form given the short track. He’s gained 10 strokes total in three attempts at El Cameleon. He’ll be overlooked and low owned since the recent performance has been less than stellar. We’ll take a shot in GPPs that he puts it back on tracks with a T20 or better
Player to Avoid:Gary Woodland $10,700 - Gary is a stud. He’s playing extremely well right now. He’s checking every relevant stat category to play well at El Cameleon. He’s always been a bomber that plays well on shorter tracks. And, he’s gained 16 strokes total here in the last five years. However, Gary was 40% owned in GPPs on DraftKings last week for the Shriners on the way to his T10. That’s a ridiculously high ownership regardless of the player, and it’s an automatic fade for a guy like Gary at the top end of the pricing. If you must play him in cash, then go ahead. Bet on him. Play him in a One and Done contest. Just fade the super chalk at $10,700 for DFS purposes. He’ll likely take a dip in ownership from last week, but even 28% or so would be too much for Woodland. 2000 Tiger may be the only guy worth ever playing at this price point with ownership above or around 30%.