Preview: The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The WGC HSBC at Sheshan International and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper and player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats: Ownership / DraftKings Scoring / Ball Striking
Lock of the week:Embed from Getty Images Brooks Koepka $11,000 - If you listened to the Tour Junkies Podcast last week, you knew we were all over our man crush Brooks. Why stop now, right? Despite the win, we don’t think his ownership will see a jump at all with such a star-studded event in China. Brooks mentioned in his press conference that the world #1 ranking was something he wanted to hold on to, and he’s at a high risk of losing it this week from either DJ or Rose if he doesn’t play well. A motivated Brooks Koepka is a dangerous Brooks Koepka. He’s a perfect course fit for Sheshan and the DK Scoring aptitude is through the roof. Don’t overthink the world #1 here.
Value Plays:Paul Casey $9,200 - Sheshan rewards ball strikers from tee to green given its windy conditions and potentially wet surfaces. You need guys who flush it from the fairway. Not many have done better than Paul Casey in that department over the last 10 years. Casey has gained 23 strokes here total over the last five years, and he’s in decent form with a T18 and T12 his last two events. Casey checks the box in all the necessary stat categories, course history, and form for a mere $9,200 on DraftKings. There aren’t many players in the field more likely to return DraftKings value than Casey. He’s a full send in GPP or cash game contests. Embed from Getty Images Patrick Cantlay $8,800 - Get ready to see this guy’s name a ton in our write-ups for the foreseeable future. There’s not a course he can’t fit from a skill set perspective. He’s one of the best tee to green players on the planet and the stats back that up. Cantlay finished 15th here last season just before winning his first PGA Tour event following. Regardless of ownership levels, we’ll be playing Cantlay in GPPs and cash without hesitation.
Julian Suri $7,000 - Suri is the picture perfect GPP play in DraftKings this week with a no cut, limited field where the winning score can get in the 20 under range. He’s a young bomber who thrives when he can be aggressive. The amount of DK points and genuine winning upside for a player with his amount of talent make Julian a must play. Plus, most people don't pay attention to European Tour results thereby unaware that he finished 5th in his last event two weeks ago. The upside versus price tag brings us the same excitement we felt as kids leaving milk out for Santa on Christmas Eve. But, it gets better...we feel the same excitement about the next player!
Best bargain basement option:Embed from Getty Images Matt Wallace $6,700 - Guess who’s won three times this year on the European Tour and was extremely close to getting the Ryder Cup nod a month ago? Matt. Wallace. Wallace has a similar style and skill set to Suri above, except he’s a proven winner already. He’s another guy that may go under the radar in GPPs since he’s a full time European Tour player that the general public won’t be familiar with. Of every player in the $6K range, we feel like Wallace has the best chance to win this week, and it’s not even close. In fact, we’d even play him in cash as he tends to be a very consistent player. Full send here people.
Player to Avoid:Byeong Hun An $8,300 - We love An as much as the next guy, but as much as we’ve been on him in recent weeks, we’re feeling a slight decline imminent. He was 23% owned last week on his way to a T41 finish. An’s ball striking has just been a little off lately, but he’s been able to save the rounds with his short game. However, the ball striking must be on at Sheshan to win. He’ll likely suffer a dip in ownership, but he’s always a popular play by the DFS community. Despite the fair price, we’ll fade An all around given the declining form.