Fantasy Golf on DraftKings – The Houston Open 2018

Lock of the week:

Phil Mickelson $10,200 – The comeback year of Phil continues this week as he loves to play the week before Augusta to ensure top form. Prior to his T55 in 2017, he’d rattled off four consecutive top 20’s at the Houston Open. He’s had a few weeks off since his victory in Mexico, but the form this season has been vintage as he’s gained 24 strokes total in his last six events. Pairing Phil with a couple of studs in the $8K & $9K range this week seems to be an attractive strategy for us in GPPs on DraftKings.

Value Plays:

Keegan Bradley $8,600 – Sir Twitchalot hasn’t missed a Masters since 2011, but he will this year if he doesn’t win the Houston Open. He’s been consistent over his career and the short term from tee to green and that’s allowed him to gain 22 strokes over the last five years at GC of Houston. He arrives in solid form having only missed two cuts in ten events. Given the wide fairways, mild rough and length of GC of Houston, we like the skill set Bradley brings to the table. Full send for us in GPPs and cash games on DraftKings.

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Ryan Palmer $7,900 – The native Texan, Ryan Palmer, feels like a sneaky play this week as he’s not getting a lot of chatter around the DFS industry. He’s flashed here before with a T7 in 2014. The play has been better this season as opposed to last year and he’s coming off a T26 at the API. Palmer’s a bomber that can score when conditions allow and knows how to stripe it when the conditions get a little windy. You’re going to want to watch the weather forecast this week as wind has played a big factor here in recent years. There may be a tee time wave advantage to one side or another.

Grayson Murray $7,200 – The controversial Web.com graduate is another sneaky play for us this week that could present some ownership leverage in GPP contests. He’s landed four top 20s this season and is coming off a T14 at the API. Murray is a bomber that ranks 10th in Birdie or Better % this PGA Tour season, and his ball striking is years ahead of other rookies on tour. A T55 here last year in his first attempt is a solid start, and we’d expect him to improve on that greatly this week with top-five upside.

Best bargain basement option:

 

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Robert Garrigus $6,600 – Don’t laugh, but it’s another week where we’ve got a case of the Garrigus! Tough to quit this guy…Listen, we know he MC’d last week in Puntacana after we talked him up, but he did the same thing last season before finishing T20 here at Houston. The significant price drop, given Bobby G’s skillset and experience, is too attractive to ignore. In the last 12 rounds, Garrigus is 12th in this field in SG: Approach and 5th in Driving Distance. That’s a recipe for at least another top 20 this week for $100 less than the minimum price on DraftKings. We’ll bite again…

Player to Avoid:

Russell Henley $9,200 – Here’s where you have to plant your flag on an overpriced course horse likely to be popular. Henley is your defending champion here with four consecutive top 10s at GC of Houston. Odds are he’s got to drop off at some point, right…? Well, we’re going to bet on that this week. However, this fade is merely a value/ownership move. It’s likely Henley finishes top 30 this week, but will that truly be enough to return value in a tournament where his ownership is over 20% and you’re spending $9,200? We don’t think so and we’re willing to gamble even though we like the player. If you like Henley, play him. But we’d advise you to go overboard if you’re going to play him at all. Own him in maybe 40-50% of your lineups if you’re dead set on Henley. Anything less, and you’re just minimizing risk rather than trying to win.

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