Key Stats for : SG: Approach / Driving Accuracy / Bogey Avoidance

Lock of the week:

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Francesco Molinari $10,600 – Known by the Tour Junkies as the “Italian Bill Haas” due to his short knocking, par making ways, Molinari should set up quite well at this track where par is your friend. Francesco plays tough tracks well, and we know that having your ball in the fairway is critical at TPC Potomac. Molinari is your guy when it comes to driving accuracy and ball striking prowess from the fairway. He’s currently 11th in the field in SG: APP for the last 12 rounds. If you’re going to pay up for names in this weak field, you want them to have the ability to win. Rickie, Tiger and Molinari are those names at the moment. He should be rested up after his T25 at the US Open, and he’s in need of the FedEx points given his standing near the 125 mark. He’s a lock in GPP and cash lineups on DraftKings as far as we’re concerned.

Value Plays:

Kiradech Aphibarnrat $9,200 – The “Barnrat” is an international treasure among men with his chain-smoking, beer gut, tight-shirt-rocking self. But, we love him for reasons outside of his tremendous physique for TPC Potomac. Like Molinari, he plays tough courses quite well as evidenced by his recent 15th at the US Open and T13 at Memorial. He’s 8th in the field in Driving Accuracy over the last 12 rounds and the putter is always a potential to get blazing hot! He’s upped his PGA Tour schedule this year and he’s likely licking his chubby chops this week to grab some FedEx points. Full send on the rat for GPP and cash.

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Byeong Hun An $8,600 – In a field where you feel like you’re paying a premium for the crappiest names in golf, An is one of the few exceptions. He’s been priced in this range a number of times this season, and this feels like a tremendous value for a guy who lost in a playoff just a few weeks ago at another tough track in Memorial. He played in the first edition at TPC Potomac last year and finished T29. He’s in the top third of the field in SG: APP and Driving Accuracy over the last 12 rounds. We’ll be overweight with An shares in GPPs on DraftKings and wouldn’t have many cash game lineups without him. He’s a lock.

Andrew Putnam $7,900 – Putnam is far from a household name on the PGA Tour, but his form is trending nicely over the last few events, with 21 strokes gained total in the last six weeks. He’s doing it with premier ball striking putting him at 20th in the field in SG: APP and 5th in Driving Accuracy over the last 12 rounds. His last three tournaments have resulted in a T42, T20 and most recently a runner-up finish at The St. Jude Classic. We’ll test the Putnam waters in GPPs. We ain’t Scrrrd!

Best bargain basement option:

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Robert Garrigus $6,700 – Here we go again…we’ve got another “case of the Garrigus” this season. It’s flaring up again thanks to Bobby G’s price, T29 finish here last season, top 25 upside and stat profile of late. He’s 2nd in the field in SG: APP and 45th in Driving Accuracy over the last 12 rounds. In a field of 120 players where the T70 and ties get through the cut, this is an event you can take a little more risk at the bottom. We’ll believe in the Garrigus flare-up in GPPs on DraftKings.

Player to Avoid:

JB Holmes $10,000 – We mentioned earlier that if you’re paying up in the $10K range this week, you better have someone that can win. This track does not suit JB whatsoever, and we won’t fall into the trap despite his nice run of form lately. He finished T68 here last season and currently he’s in the middle of this weak field in Driving Accuracy over the last 12 rounds. That doesn’t sound like a winning formula. We’ve been believers in JB the last couple of weeks with the solid form and tracks that reward his bomb and gouge style. However, TPC Potomac is a much more difficult course requiring accuracy off the tee to succeed. We’ll bet on the marshalls having to help JB find his ball a fair amount this week.