Preview: The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The BMW Championship at Aronimink and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper and player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats: SG: Off the Tee / Proximity / SG: Around the Green / Bubble Boy Status w/ FedEx / Ownership / Donald Ross Design Course Horse / Recent Form
Lock of the week:Embed from Getty Images Rory Mcllroy $10,300 - Why not grab a lower owned stud at the top that’s capable of rattling off a bunch of birdies at a tournament where everyone is guaranteed four rounds of play? Rory flashed some solid form last week after an average PGA Championship. He’s top 15 in the field in SG: OTT and SG: ATG. Plus, over the last 100 rounds on Donald Ross designed courses, he’s eighth in the field in SG: Total. We’re likely to see ownership sub 15% in most GPPs on DraftKings, which makes Rory rather tasty given the scoring upside. Finally, like Fowler and Spieth below him, he’s in the 25-30 range in terms of the FedEx Cup ranking. If he drops outside the top 30, he’ll fail to qualify for East Lake in two weeks. Rory should be rather motivated.
Value Plays:Jordan Spieth $9,400 - For the first time since the Genesis in February, Jordan was in the positive across all major Strokes Gained categories for the Dell last week. He’s starting to put the game back together after a tough year. The price tag and course fit are too delicious to pass up. The greens here resemble those of Augusta National being large, undulating and bentgrass. The highest ownership we’ve seen for Jordan since the Open has been 14% across DraftKings GPPs. Let’s ride the form trend and go with a motivated Spieth who sits at #27 on the FedEx Cup ranking playing for a spot in Atlanta. Embed from Getty Images Rickie Fowler $9,000 - “Dick Fowler” (Farmers Insurance reference) sits at the 26th spot in the FedEx Cup rankings while coming off a few weeks rest from an oblique injury. He mentioned in a press conference this week that he could’ve played last week, but felt the extra rest would pay off. His form has been solid and he may go overlooked with people scared of the injury. Aronimink has over 170 bunkers to navigate and Rickie is one of the best sand players in the world. His ball striking and consistent putting this season could very well lead him to a top five or better on this track. We love the play here. Full send.
Kevin Kisner $7,300 - Our friend, Kiz, wants nothing more than to get the final Ryder Cup nod from Captain Furyk next Monday. This is his last hope and he’s got to go big. Given how well Finau has played, Kiz would need to top five or better and Finau would need to really tank. He’s just a guy that plays at a different level when he really wants it. He’s top 20 in SG: OTT and Proximity and he’s played Donald Ross courses pretty well over the course of his career. Again, in a small field, no cut event, you want guys that are going to give you ownership leverage on DraftKings. You aren’t going to be successful with a team full of 15-20% owned players. Find the guys at good value, low ownership, and big upside.
Best bargain basement option:Embed from Getty Images Aaron Wise $7,000 - Speaking of big upside...the rookie has had quite the season with four T10s and a victory. He’s a streaky hot player that can really go low, which equals tremendous DraftKings value given the scoring system. When you’re guaranteed four rounds of play, having Wise in your lineups could bring loads of value given an ownership level sub 7%. The rookie is 9th in SG: OTT and 18th in Proximity over the last 12 rounds. Plus, there’s a substantial chance of rain in Philly this week which could lead to a softer course. Wise can bomb and gouge his way around nicely if the course softens up.
Player to Avoid:Bryson Dechambeau $10,000 - As usual, we try to give you a fade that will actually help you gain an edge if that player misses. Fading a player at 5% doesn’t really help you much when they suck it up. Bryson won’t be ridiculous, but he’s likely to be 15% owned or so. The price tag is as high as it’s ever been coming off the back to back wins. He’s already locked up the Ryder Cup selection and the #1 seed at East Lake. Given the situation, this week won’t require the same level of focus and intensity as previous. We’ll take our chances with the hottest player at the moment and avoid at all costs.